How long will an scenario last?

Pops

Administrator
In another thread the question cam up that a CD Rom will last about 10 years,

Well, how long would a SHTF scenario last? I mean I figure most natural disasters are pretty much resolved in 2 to 30 days.
How long should a reasonable fellow prepare for?


:?:
 

mcdaniel

Member
I think that you should prep for three days. Then 2 weeks, then 30 days.

Most ordeals are over in a couple days, and you can have 3 days of food/water/fuel easily in one paycheck without feeling it too bad. This type of situation would be most likely a storm or some type of weather event.

After the 3 days are prepped for I would work on 2 weeks. This really shouldn't take too much money, time, or storage space either. I think the next most likely scenario would be a hurricane. My family on the gulf was so ill prepared for Katrina that we had to load a 2 horse trailer with generators/gas/food/water/fuel. My grandparents are elderly and in poor health and I doubt they would have made it without the window unit and generators we sent. The good thing about hurricanes is you know they are coming.

After I was prepped for 2 weeks, including having alternative cooking methods that don't require shore power, fuel for these, medical supplies, and special needs items(lady's needs, child's needs, etc), I would move my food prep plan out to 30 days.

This is the plan I am working on currently. Will I go farther than this, probably not until I move I the next few months, but after that probably yes.

Any Comments on this Plan? All constructive criticism welcomed!
 

thebrasilian

New Member
Well I would have to say longer. Look at LA after Katrina. They still have vacant areas for people to move back.

By the way CD last longer that 10 years. More like 100 if you don't physically damage them and keep them away from UV. I have cd that are over 22 years old that still play.
 

Frost

Active Member
Subject: [7-5] How long do CD-Rs and CD-RWs last?
(2005/04/14)

CD-RWs are expected to last about 25 years under ideal conditions (i.e. you write it once and then leave it alone). Repeated rewrites will accelerate this. In general, CD-RW media isn't recommended for long-term backups or archives of valuable data.

The rest of this section applies to CD-R.

The manufacturers claim 75 years (cyanine dye, used in "green" discs), 100 years (phthalocyanine dye, used in "gold" discs), or even 200 years ("advanced" phthalocyanine dye, used in "platinum" discs) once the disc has been written. The shelf life of an unrecorded disc has been estimated at between 5 and 10 years. There is no standard agreed-upon way to test discs for lifetime viability. Accelerated aging tests have been done, but they may not provide a meaningful analogue to real-world aging.

Exposing the disc to excessive heat, humidity, or to direct sunlight will greatly reduce the lifetime. In general, CD-Rs are far less tolerant of environmental conditions than pressed CDs, and should be treated with greater care. The easiest way to make a CD-R unusable is to scratch the top surface. Find a CD-R you don't want anymore, and try to scratch the top (label side) with your fingernail, a ballpoint pen, a paper clip, and anything else you have handy. The results may surprise you.

Keep them in a cool, dark, dry place, and they will probably live longer than you do (emphasis on "probably"). Some newsgroup reports have complained of discs becoming unreadable in as little as three years, but without knowing how the discs were handled and stored such anecdotes are useless. Try to keep a little perspective on the situation: a disc that degrades very little over 100 years is useless if it can't be read in your CD-ROM drive today.

One user reported that very inexpensive CD-Rs deteriorated in a mere six weeks, despite careful storage. Some discs are better than others.

An interesting article by Fred Langa (of http://www.langa.com/) on http://www.informationweek.com/story/sh ... 263&pgno=1 describes how to detect bad discs, and discusses whether putting an adhesive label on the disc causes them to fail more quickly.

By some estimates, pressed CD-ROMs may only last for 10 to 25 years, because the aluminum reflective layer starts to corrode after a while.

One user was told by Blaupunkt that CD-R discs shouldn't be left in car CD players, because if it gets too hot in the car the CD-R will emit a gas that can blind the laser optics. However, CD-Rs are constructed much the same way and with mostly the same materials as pressed CDs, and the temperatures required to cause such an emission from the materials that are exposed would melt much of the car's interior. The dye layer is sealed into the disc, and should not present any danger to drive optics even if overheated. Even so, leaving a CD-R in a hot car isn't good for the disc, and will probably shorten its useful life.

See also http://www.cd-info.com/CDIC/Technology/ ... evity.html, especially http://www.cd-info.com/CDIC/Industry/ne ... ology.html about some inaccurate reporting in the news media.

See "Do gold CD-R discs have better longevity than green discs?" on http://www.mscience.com/faq53.html.

There's a very readable discussion of CD-R media error testing on http://web.archive.org/web/200312111517 ... na296.html that leaves you with a numb sense of amazement that CD-Rs work at all. It also explains the errors that come out of MSCDEX and what the dreaded E32 error means to a CD stamper.

An interesting document entitled "Care and Handling of CDs and DVDs - A Guide for Librarians and Archivists" can be found on the web sites for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR). View it on the web at http://www.clir.org/pubs/reports/pub121/contents.html or as a PDF from http://www.itl.nist.gov/div895/careford ... gGuide.pdf. It has a wealth of information about disc composition and longevity, as well as recommendations for extending the lifespan of your media.

Another good NIST article, "Stability Comparison of Recordable Optical Discs -- A Study of Error Rates in Harsh Conditions" can be found at http://www.itl.nist.gov/div895/gipwg/StabilityStudy.pdf.

http://www.cdrfaq.org/faq07.html

Kodak has some interesting information about their "Ultima" media. See http://www.kodak.com/global/en/service/ ... ndex.jhtml, specifically the "KODAK Ultima Lifetime Discussion" and "KODAK Ultima Lifetime Calculation" white papers (currently in PDF format). The last page discusses the Arrhenius equation, which is used in chemistry to calculate the effect of temperature on reaction rates. The Kodak page defines it as:

t = A * exp(E/kT)

where 'exp()' indicates exponentiation. 't' is disc lifetime, 'A' is a time constant, 'E' is activation energy, 'k' is Boltzmann's constant, and 'T' is absolute temperature. The equation allows lifetime determined at one temperature to be used to establish the lifetime at another. If a disc breaks down in three months in extreme heat, you can extrapolate the lifetime at room temperature.

The trouble with the equation is that you have to know either 'A' or 'E'. It appears that 'A' can be estimated based on empirical evidence, but see http://palimpsest.stanford.edu/byorg/ab ... 3-308.html for some cautions about how tricky it can be to choose the right value.
 

Range Master

New Member
Signal mirror, broken into pieces to bait coon traps in the creeks,...um,..........cant think of any other survival uses for a cd. :lol:
 

mcdaniel

Member
thebrasilian said:
Well I would have to say longer. Look at LA after Katrina. They still have vacant areas for people to move back.

By the way CD last longer that 10 years. More like 100 if you don't physically damage them and keep them away from UV. I have cd that are over 22 years old that still play.

New Orleans is definitely still recovering, but the "situation" was over in less than a month. I would hope that one would be smart/able enough to remove themselves from the situation ASAP. That is my plan should a natural/manmade disaster occur in the upstate. Path of least resistance offers the least resistance, if you know what I am trying to say.

My immediate goal is to be able to avoid the supply lines that occurred (during the Katrina mess) in MS where my family lives. My family saw things happen that never made the news. For example, A man was shot dead in a Lowes parking lot siphoning gas out of another mans truck. Did he deserve it, maybe, but I would rather not have that on my conscience. I think that a well stocked 30 day supply would cover 99% of possible events. Would a 365 day supply be better? Of course, but that cost a lot more cash and space than a 30 day.
 

Pops

Administrator
3 days sounds like the most critical time. It would give me time to get to higher ground and possible find others in the same situation to try and pool resources and safety. I can't imagine trying to remain alone in a scenario.

After that I think the 2 weeks plan is probably the longest time before I would find a group or be rounded up and put in a group. besides, There wouldn't be a small animal left for 200 miles otherwise. :shock:

Longer term displacement could require money for temporary living expenses in another region while they loot, erh make my home safe for me to return.

The non-natural disasters are another matter entirely. Something like that may actually require a complete overnight transplant to another region. these are two completely different problems. One is a few days or weeks, the other may be permanent or at least very long term. This scenario is where personal records, stashed cash, marketable skills etc would be required. If someone needed to leave an area to go to safety he may not get to return any time soon.

there also exist some ruggedized USB jump drives out there that are water proof. I wonder if having copies of records and minimal supplies in multiple locations would be smart?
 

HOLY DIVER

New Member
prepare for the worst hope for the best.thats the way i think.gameplan,you can't survive something realy REALY bad by your self. read the book Patriots
 

Enjay

New Member
It depends upon the type of crises also. Local, probably 3 days. Regional, probably two weeks. I'm of the prepare for it to be permanent camp. I figure if I have prepared my family as well as I can for as long as I can, then I've got the 3 days to 2 weeks covered. :D
 

Parhams0508

New Member
I like to practice the principle of threes: can't live past 3 minutes without oxygen, 3 hours without adequate shelter, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food, etc. I then apply that to prepping: 3 days, 3 weeks, 3 months, 3 years. Once I feel reasonably satisfied with the first level, I go on to the next.
 

Enjay

New Member
I believe swiss is referring to a cold frame of sorts, which do have their uses. I would not count this as one of them. The issue I have with the scenario that swiss described is that it could only work under certain circumstances without a heat/cooling source as most seeds need a rather specific temperature range and won't germinate until those temperatures are reached. Sunlight isn't necessary and isn't recommended for edible sprouts. I don't see why you'd want to spend the time building a cold frame, fortifying it and hang around tending the seeds for a minimum of three days when sprouting is something that you could conceivably do in your coat pocket.
 

Tigerstripe

Active Member
but if sprouts are to be a food supply you would need a large pocket.

what kind of sprouts can be used as a food supply?
 

Enjay

New Member
As I understand it just about any edible seed can be used. This page has a chart with a nutritional workup of some of the most popular, you'll need to scroll down to see it. http://www.sproutpeople.com/nutrition.html
From what I've read survival people recommend a cup and a half of sprouted seed per day. I found a product that is designed for sprouting without power and is recommended for sprouting on the go. It has a detailed, illustrated guide to go with it so if you're interested you might want to check it out. http://sproutpeople.org/supply/sprouters/easysprout.html
 
Top